|
Decision Support and Forecasting Center CEMI RAS |
||
|
|
Econometrics and Its Applications
Macroeconometric Modelling: Modern Trends, Problems, the Econometric Model of the Russian Economy
Sergey Aivazian, Boris Brodsky
This research deals with methodological problems of the macroeconometric modelling of the Russian economy of 1990-2000s with respect to modern trends in macroeconomic and econometric theory. The authors propose a two-stage procedure of modeling. At the first stage a disaggregated dynamical model is created aimed at theoretical description of the main three subsectors of the Russian economy: export-oriented (incl. oil and gas, ferrous and nonferrous metals), inner-oriented (incl. machine-building, food and light industries, agro- and construction branches), and the subsector of infrastructural monopolies (electricity, transport). At the second stage en econometric model is proposed which includes the nonstationary cointegration type and the balance type relationships and identities. This system of equations is solved simultaneously and used for the analysis of short-term and middle-term macroeconomic shocks and projections. Keywords: Macroeconometrics; Russian Economy; nonstationary; cointegration; short-term and middle-term analysis
Working paper # WP/2005/192 Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
(435 K Russian version)
|
|
|
|
Contact information: |
|
