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Decision Support and Forecasting Center CEMI RAS |
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Econometrics and Its Applications
Analysis of the Medium-Term Trends of Inflation Processes in the Russian Economy
Alexander Bereznyatskiy Martiros Bagdasarov
The work provides analysis of the price changes on the Russian consumer goods market. The analysis is made in order to identify the factors influencing the formation of the medium term price changes. The following price indicators were analyzed: consumer price index, base consumer price index, price indexes related to foodstuffs and other goods, and price indexes related to paid services. The following variables were chosen for the econometric models: M2 cash rate, dollar-to-ruble ratio rate, and price rate in the energy production sphere. The seasonality and the 1998 economic crisis influence upon the price changes were analyzed. The main conclusion the authors make is that the pattern of cash and non-cash-related factors influencing the medium term price changes was changing at a different rate during various time periods from 1990 to 2006.
The article was published in journal Applied Econometrics Volume 2 Issue 2 2006 The article can be downloaded from REPEC (it is temporarily free only in Russian) http://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/apltrx/0160.html
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