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Decision Support and Forecasting Center CEMI RAS |
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Econometrics and Its Applications
Macroeconomic modeling of the Russian economy
Sergei Aivazian, Boris Brodsky, Alexander Bereznyatskiy
In this paper the methodology for disaggregated macroeconomic model of the Russian economy of 1990–2010s is given. In this model the following main sectors of the Russian economy are considered: the real sector (subsectors EOM (export-oriented markets), DOM (domestic oriented markets), EM (natural monopolies)), the financial sector, the population. We try to explain why the real understanding of trends and tendencies of the Russian economy is achieved only via interactions between these sectors. The choice of predictors of the macroeconometric model is carried out on the basis of conclusions of the theoretical disaggregated model: the main factors of long-term dynamics in co-integrated equations are considered and the functional form of these equations is chosen. The main conclusion of the authors: the theoretical description of the Russian economy is possible on the basis of the structural disaggregated model which can be used for the macroeconometric modeling.
Keywords: Russian economy; disaggregated macromodel; applied econometric analysis. JEL classification: C30; C32; C14; E13.
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